L.A. escapes Chicago with dramatic draw

Soccer Betting Lines

09/04/2010 - Bridgeview, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Omar Gonzalez scored in stoppage time and the Los Angeles Galaxy escaped Toyota Park with a 1-1 draw against the 10-man Chicago Fire on Saturday, despite a missed penalty from Landon Donovan and a late goal from Collins John.

Donovan's first-half penalty was stopped by Fire goalkeeper Sean Johnson, then John scored the opening goal in the 88th minute to put Chicago in position for its second win over L.A. in just over a month.

L.A. responded just seconds into stoppage time through Gonzalez, who jumped to meet a corner kick from Donovan and headed powerfully past Johnson from just a few yards out.

The Galaxy (13-5-5) avoided their fourth loss in their last five games, a span that started with a 3-2 loss to the Fire on Aug. 1.

Chicago (6-7-7) followed that win over Los Angeles with a tie against Red Bull New York and a win over New England, but then lost back-to-back matches to the Houston Dynamo and Seattle Sounders FC. The Fire are now winless in three.

L.A. had the best chances in the opening half, including a header over the bar by MLS leading scorer Edson Buddle in the 15th minute and another header over the bar in the 39th from Donovan.

The key play of the first half was in the 23rd minute, when Donovan failed to convert a penalty kick after Gonzalo Segares was sent off for a foul in the area. The U.S. star drove his penalty to the right but did not place it well, and Johnson dove to his left to deflect the shot.

L.A. nearly erased the frustrating first half midway through the second when a nice back-flick pass from Donovan set up Sean Franklin, who fired just wide of the left post.

Chicago notched the first goal two minutes from time off a free kick as John, who just entered the match minutes earlier, drove the ball around L.A.'s wall and into the bottom-right corner from 22 yards.

Gonzalez spoiled Chicago's celebration seconds later, as Donovan delivered the corner from the right, and the central defender soared to reach the ball near the edge of the six-yard box. His strong header left Johnson no chance.

Johnson, who finished with seven saves, was called into action one final time, and he responded with a one-handed save on Franklin two minutes into stoppage time.

Chicago continues its busy September on Wednesday, when Toronto FC visits. The Galaxy host the Columbus Crew on Sept. 11 in a battle of two of the best teams in MLS.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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